Even if I aim in the article that this crisis ultimately has its good sides and that we all, all over the world, can and will learn from it. This is called reframing – putting it in a new frame, recognizing new perspectives.
I have respect for every suffering and pain of the infected people in the course of the disease and pray for the many dead around the world. But the proportions are wrong and the article makes it clear without hysteria where the bottleneck is and how we will overcome it.
The human factor is core again, as it also underlies my world-project considerations. There are so many people with fear in Germany, the German fear has even become part of the English vocabulary. The weekly newspaper ZEIT is titled in a recent editorial „Fear is also a virus“, and it is even more infectious than Corona and it runs faster.
With around 20,000 “normal” flu deaths in Germany each year (with 80 million inhabitants, some vaccinated, against the 1.5 billion Chinese), it is surprising that the Germans panic. Maybe driving a car is more dangerous. Although the new corona flu is of course slightly more likely to die than the usual seasonal flu waves. The last phase is said to be breathing difficulties. And there is a group of people at risk: older people and those with previous illnesses.
Buying supermarkets empty with certain products – what for? Steal disinfectant dispensers in hospitals – it’s already sick. It’s clear that normal hand washing is enough. The simple mouth guards – only protect against 1x sneezing, then throw away.
The risk of infection is estimated to be less than 10%, there are even doctors who speak of close to 0. And then the disease is uncomfortable, but more than 97% for recovery (Germany 99.7%). As a reminder: it is 0% for rabies and only 66% for plague in the Middle Ages (a third of the population died), as is subsequently estimated. With Ebola it was about 50% depending on the treatment options. Today there are many better therapy methods than 100 years ago with the so-called Spanish flu (which came from the USA) and killed 50 million people. With her, the healing or survival rate of infected people was still over 90% – but there were more deaths than in the whole of World War I combined.
And what about the Novovirus in hospitals in industrialized countries too?
Even the best healthcare system does not protect against so much fear and mass hysteria (despite all the mistakes that the state organs are said to have made in the past few weeks – the ZEIT article describes this).
It is like fear of money: if too many people storm the banks at once and want to withdraw their money in cash, everything breaks down.
A few facts
People abroad, especially Italy, France, Spain are surprised that 3% of those infected die according to the official figures, in Germany only 0.3%.
China had about 80.000 confirmed cases . After a slow start to state action, however, action was taken quickly and decisively: contagion chains identified (unprecedented search, certainly also through existing (image) surveillance of the population). Seals, cancellations and shutdowns. The production of test kits was started up in a few weeks, currently 1.6 million per week! A complete hospital was built in Wuhan in 2 weeks.
In theory, everything is simple: just stop the whole country in affected regions for only 14 out of 365 days, nobody moves to make new contacts. Then isolate the really sick. The number of people newly infected every day drops immediately. But then there should be no more external contacts – only after quarantine for 14 days. When I on 7.3. started drafting this article that came to my mind. What our government is now ordering (standstill of social contacts) goes in this direction – but totally isolating is only possible in theory.
And everything has great economic effects in Germany too: bankruptcies, cancellations of trade fairs and other major events – even football. Gastronomy, hotel industry, tourism suffer badly. This path is now underway across Europe, with one country getting through it faster than the other.
But the rampant conspiracy theories don’t care.
The situation on the whole planet is also interesting – especially when we are surprised that such drastic measures are being taken in Germany. We are currently in 7th place in our country comparison with our case numbers. But Europe is simply the greatest concentration after China. This is where over half a billion people live in a small area compared to China and the USA or Russia, the highest worldwide population density.
And that is the link to the world-wide updated information from the WHO. It shows Italy in second place. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd
Main problem: capacity of the health sector
Even at the beginning of the news from China, I hardly took the topic seriously and hardly noticed it due to the low mortality rate – and my own low flu experiences, even without vaccination and little anxiety. I also live without a TV and only occasionally actively inform myself about the worldwide Corona crisis. As a result, I take little part in the rampant hysteria and can take a broader perspective with the current information.
But I am also beginning to realize that the problem is not with the hamster purchases of toilet paper and pasta, but with the capacity of the health system, even in the advanced industrialized countries. No matter how high or low the exact mortality rate is.
The calculation is simple: Let us assume that only 5% of the total population of 80 million would be infected quickly without all the current protective measures. That’s 4 million. Many of them show hardly any symptoms. But based on experience, we can count on the fact that the disease course in one fifth of them is such that they have to go to the hospital. That would be 0.8 million, of which in turn 1/10 become intensive cases, which results in a bed requirement of around 80,000. However, there are currently only 28,000 intensive care beds in Germany, and around 25,000 breathing-ventilation equipment for this – and these are now mostly used before and without corona.
Brand new information. The german government has ordered 10,000 breathing-ventilators to be manufactured in special shifts. However, delivery will continue until the end of the year.
So we have to stretch the spread of the virus as long as possible so that we do not reach the capacity limits of our health system. If the difficult cases are not ventilated, the mortality rate increases. Doctors would then have to decide who is connected to a device and who is not – and is thus exposed to death.
Here is the graphic that I made myself. A few days ago I saw a similar one on the Internet, but it can no longer be found.
Reframing – the benefit of what we can and should learn from the crisis
Reframing means putting the situation in a larger context and discovering new, even positive perspectives. Of course without conspiracy theories and doomsday fantasies including God’s punishments.
- Awareness increases: we are a planet, the world grows together
- Better cooperation between the state authorities makes sense. But we also recognize which politicians really care about the population and strive for efficiency, instead of producing empty phrases of strength or about supposedly guilty parties.
- We need supranational world rules and cooperation for such future cases including communication – because a way back to the Middle Ages with city walls and controlled entrances, outer quarantine tents is not possible for us.
- Awareness of hygiene among the population is increasing again. But that’s good. Hospitals do regular training courses to remind . (Which is also required by the Novovirus.)
- There are also examples of people’s solidarity (Gangelt village in German North Rhine-Westphalia) where people take turns shopping and supporting each other.
- Or of solidarity even between countries: China has sent Italy an aid delivery with medical equipment including 9 corona-experienced doctors.
- Companies and employees experience more home office, practice new, unfamiliar ways of working – this works quite well. So the trend will certainly increase there in the future.
- Some companies will change their supply chains, produce more in their own country – in moderation that’s not bad either.
- Learning effects related to hysteria and conspiracy theories
- Even hard environmentalists are rediscovering the advantages of an individual car journey. So there is a new feeling for both-and-in moderation instead of pure teaching the only truth.
- Reputable sources of information such as the health sector and state organs are moving to concience again and thus facts – instead of playful opinion making and populism without substance.
- We learn to appreciate what we have, again.
- Even with fewer social contacts and outside of large amounts, we can have a good time and have enriching conversations.
- And maybe we can use the time to think about ourselves and our way of life. This could even go as far as personality and awareness development, the topic of this world-project website. There are the causes of all problem areas in this world. If we change our consciousness in large numbers, we will also find better solutions for democracy, economy, jobs, etc. How can we achieve this in large numbers? For the developing countries, starting with Africa, I found a way. But in Europe we have to do it another way.
There is also a lot to do with social isolation in the sense of the above reframing:
- Tidy up, repair in the house
- Make family councils about how the family is reorganized and how communication takes place. Bring out the existing board games
- Activate your own energy sources consciously: leisure, nature, movement, listening to music, eating and drinking, reading & writing (e.g. my books presented on this page – the novel or the non-fiction book), hobbies, handicrafts, musicians, painting. I don’t want to recommend TV and permanent movies on the Internet, they make us empty rather than active, as I keep hearing in my seminars.
- Dedicate free and free time to personal development and professional and professional further training. The same applies to the children. And the internet really has a lot to offer.
- Instead of wellness hotel: massage with each other, meditations.
- Neighborhood help. Lookout for Facebook groups .Tthere is certainly a lot to discover and actively develop on the Internet, instead of sinking into boredom or roaring with too many movies!
- If possible, a diary of the close social contacts so that the path can be traced back if infections are found. This is not a snitch, but useful for the community.
- and much more